Atlanta Real Estate Blog

New Page 1 Mortgage Market Comment - Week of October 26, 2009

Mortgage bond prices ended the week nearly unchanged despite considerable market volatility. Trading was up and down all week.  Rates improved the first portion of the week as stocks fell below key psychological levels.  Unfortunately, a reversal the middle portion of the week eroded the earlier improvements.  Data was mixed, with tame inflation readings, but generally stronger than expected economic activity.  For the week, interest rates were nearly unchanged.

The Treasury auctions will take center stage again this week.  If there is strong foreign demand, it will likely spill over to the mortgage bond market.  Weak auctions will likely result in mortgage interest rate increases.  Employment cost index data will also be carefully watched.


Economic Factors
Economic Indicator
Release Date Time
Consensus Estimate
Analysis
2-year Treasury Note Auction
Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2009
None

Important. $44 billion of notes will be auctioned.  Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

New Home Sales
Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2009
Up 2.6%

Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.

5-year Treasury Note Auction
Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2009
None

Important. $41 billion of notes will be auctioned.  Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Q3 Advance GDP
Thursday, Oct. 29, 2009
Up 3.1%

Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.

7-year Treasury Note Auction
Thursday, Oct. 29, 2009
None

Important. $31 billion of notes will be auctioned.  Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Personal Income and Outlays
Friday, Oct. 30, 2009
Unchanged, Down 0.4%

Important. A measure of consumers' ability to spend.  Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Q3 Employment Cost Index
Friday, Oct. 30, 2009
Up 0.5%

Very important.  A measure of wage inflation.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.

U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Friday, Oct. 30, 2009
70.0

Important.  An indication of consumers' willingness to spend.  Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates


Existing HomeSales

Last week's existing home sales data shocked the market with a stronger than expected increase.  Sales rose 9.4%, considerably stronger than the expected 5.5% increase.  Some analysts attribute the surge in sales to the $8000 tax credit that was set to expire at the end of November. (The good news going forward is that the tax credit has been extended and expanded until April 30, 2010).  Lower home prices and historically low mortgage interest rates also factored into the increase.  From a national perspective this is a positive report.  However, the fact that some major metropolitan areas of the country failed to see improvements is an example of the axiom that real estate is local.

There is still uncertainty regarding the future state of the economy.  Mortgage rates are great.  Take advantage of them while that remains the case.

Sellers: What To Do Now

Get your home on the market now while homes are more affordable, interest rates are low, and buyers are plentiful and looking for bargains.  Take advantage of the Holidays to put your home's best foot forward.  For tips on which fix-ups and clean-ups have the most impact, please call me at 404-384-2274.

Buyers: What To Do Now

Beat the other buyers to the best listings now.  There are fewer competitors during the Fall and Winter - increasing your chances of finding a good deal at an attractive price.  Be sure to pre-qualify with a lender before you start looking at homes.  If you need help finding a lender, please call me at 404-384-2274.


Tags:

Treasury auction, Q3 Advance GDP, Consumer Sentiment, existing home sales, strong increase, credit demand, mortgage interest rate increases, homebuyers, home sellers, home buyers, interest rates were nearly unchanged, mortgage rates near historic lows, home fix-ups, home clean-ups, getting pre-qualified with a lender, ATLShortSales.com

 


Posted by Lee Marlin on November 9th, 2009 9:23 AMPost a Comment (0)

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